Abstract
Though malaria control initiatives have markedly reduced malaria prevalence in recent decades, global eradication is far from actuality. Recent studies show that environmental and social heterogeneities in low-transmission settings have an increased weight in shaping malaria micro-epidemiology. New integrated and more localized control strategies should be developed and tested. Here we present a set of agent-based models designed to study the influence of local scale human movements on local scale malaria transmission in a typical Amazon environment, where malaria is transmission is low and strongly connected with seasonal riverine flooding. The agent-based simulations show that the overall malaria incidence is essentially not influenced by local scale human movements. In contrast, the locations of malaria high risk spatial hotspots heavily depend on human movements because simulated malaria hotspots are mainly centered on farms, were laborers work during the day. The agent-based models are then used to test the effectiveness of two different malaria control strategies both designed to reduce local scale malaria incidence by targeting hotspots. The first control scenario consists in treat against mosquito bites people that, during the simulation, enter at least once inside hotspots revealed considering the actual sites where human individuals were infected. The second scenario involves the treatment of people entering in hotspots calculated assuming that the infection sites of every infected individual is located in the household where the individual lives. Simulations show that both considered scenarios perform better in controlling malaria than a randomized treatment, although targeting household hotspots shows slightly better performance.
Highlights
The main interest in the “No Human Movement” scenario was to compare a realistic representation of human movements with an unrealistic representation, which has been extensively used in the past to represent humans in malaria transmission Agent-Based Models (ABM)
During the past three decades several weakness of malaria control methods have emerged like resistance to antimalarial drugs, resistance to Indoor Residual Spraying (IRSs), appearance of mosquito progressive adaptation strategies
We are becoming aware of environmental issues associated with the use of insecticides to alter the environment where mosquitoes live
Summary
Control methods include distribution of Insecticide-Treated Bed Nets (ITNs), Indoor Residual Spraying (IRSs), diagnostic, distribution of anti-malaria treatments, and agricultural areas management [2] These efforts often, but not always, produced the expected results: between 2000 and 2015 the global malaria incidence was reduced by 41%, mortality rate by 62%, and 17 previously malaria endemic countries attained 3 consecutive years of zero indigenous cases [1]. When policy makers in developing countries foresee the possibility of malaria eradication, they may prematurely divert the limited amount of public resources dedicated to control malaria, to other areas of public health concern [3] These practices leave endemic areas exposed to resurgence risks. Evidence-based strategies tailoring when and where to concentrate control efforts at a global, regional and local scale remains an inadequately-solved barrier which must be overcome to make malaria elimination an actuality
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
