Our currency, your problem? The global effects of the euro debt crisis

Abstract

In this paper, I look at the global effects of the euro debt crisis, using an event study approach. After identifying a number of euro crisis events in the period that goes from 2010 to 2012, I analyse their impact on equity returns, exchange rates and government bond yields in 40 non-euro area countries. The main finding of this study is that euro debt crisis events have contributed to a rise in global risk aversion accompanied by a fall in equity returns, mainly in the financial sector. Moreover, I find that the effect on bond yields is not statistically significant for the whole set of countries, but it has a significant - though small - impact on countries with a high risk rating. Finally, the paper also focuses on transmission channels by looking at how pre-determined country characteristics influence the strength and direction of the contagion effect. I find that the most consistent conduits of contagion are: (i) trade exposure to the euro area, (ii) EU membership, and (iii) whether a currency is pegged to the euro.