Abstract
ABSTRACT On account of that the OU models based on Gaussian process cannot describe the characteristics of peak, bias and asymmetric thick tail in SHIBOR time series, this paper replaces the Gaussian process in OU model with Levy process which can be decomposed into positive and negative subordinate processes, constructs OU model based on positive and negative subordinate processes. Methods parameter estimation and stochastic simulation were carried out by making discrete the stochastic differential equations into stochastic difference equations. The result shows that non-Gaussian OU process based on positive and negative subordinate processes not only fits the time series but also has better economic interpretation. The innovation of our research is to build a model of Non-Gaussian OU process based on positive and negative subordinate processes with less stochastic terms, and it provides an efficient tool for forecasting SHIBOR time series.
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