OSV Activity Forecast

Abstract

OSVs have important economic and environmental impacts on coastal communities in the Gulf Coast region, and these impacts depend on the quantity and spatial distribution of vessel activity which in turn depends on the type and geographic distribution of exploration and development. The purpose of this final chapter is to bring together the calibration data and the analytic framework to describe the results of a predictive model of OSV activity. Port activity is described according to offshore activity expected to arise from current and new lease sales categorized according to water depth, planning area, and vessel class. Between 53,000 and 118,000 OSV trips per year are estimated to support offshore activity in the Gulf of Mexico from 2012 to 2017. Port Fourchon is the most important port for both shallow and deepwater support. Offshore oil and gas development in shallow water is broadly distributed across shorebases, while in the deepwater, support is concentrated in Port Fourchon. The chapter concludes with a discussion of alternative leasing policies.