Abstract
In this study, the creep properties of ultrafine plate-fin structures which possess uncertainty factors in material properties of a base metal and shapes are investigated using the Monte Carlo simulation. For this, a time-dependent homogenization theory is applied to the analysis of creep properties of ultrafine plate-fm structures. Moreover, Stepwise Limited Sampling (SLS) is introduced into the Monte Carlo simulation to reduce computational costs. Then, using the present analysis method, the effects of uncertainty factors on the creep properties of ultrafine plate-fin structures subjected to a macroscopic constant stress at high temperature are investigated. This enables us to obtain tail probability values of creep strain by one tenth of computational costs compared to the conventional Monte Carlo simulation.
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