ORTHOPOD: PREDICTING INJURY PROPORTIONALITY FROM NECK OF FEMUR FRACTURES

Abstract

AbstractObjectivesThe need to accurately forecast the injury burden has never been higher. With an aging, ever expanding trauma population and less than half of the beds available compared to 1990, the National Health Service (NHS) is stretched to breaking point1,2. Resultantly, we aimed to determine whether it is possible to predict the proportionality of injuries treated operatively within orthopaedic departments based on their number of Neck of Femur fracture (NOF) patients reported both in our study and the National Hip Fracture Database (NHFD).MethodsWe utilised the ORthopaedic trauma hospital outcomes - Patient operative delays (ORTHOPOD) dataset of 22,585 trauma patients across the four countries of the United Kingdom (UK) admitted to 83 hospitals between 22/08/22 – 16/10/22. This dataset had two arms: arm one was assessing the caseload and theatre capacity, arm two assessed the patient, injury and management demographics.ResultsOur results complied with the data reported to the NHFD in over 80% of cases for both the 2022 and five-year average reported numbers. More operations were performed for elderly hip fractures alone than for the combined totals of the next four most common fractures: ankle, distal radius, tibial shaft and forearm (6387 vs 5922). Conversely, 10 out of the 13 fracture types were not encountered by at least one hospital and 93% of hospitals encountered less than 2 fractures of a certain type.60% of trauma is treated within Trauma Units (TUs) however, per unit, Major Trauma Centres (MTCs) treat approximately 43% more patients. Similarly, 11 out of the 14 fracture types examined presented more frequently to a MTC however 3 of the most common fractures had a preponderance for TUs (elderly hip, distal radius and forearm fractures). After excluding NOF, lower limb fractures accounted for approximately 57% of fractures in all countries and ankle and distal radius fracture combined comprised more than 50% in 74% of regions. There were few outliers across the study regarding number of fractures treated by a hospital with tibial shaft fractures demonstrating the highest number of outliers with 4.ConclusionsThe number of hip fractures seen on average by an individual unit remains relatively consistent as does the regional variation of any given fracture; resultantly, it is possible to predict injury proportionality based off a unit's hip fracture numbers. This powerful tool could transform both resource allocation and recruitment.Declaration of Interest(b) declare that there is no conflict of interest that could be perceived as prejudicing the impartiality of the research reported:I declare that there is no conflict of interest that could be perceived as prejudicing the impartiality of the research project.