Abstract

A geometric model of cognitive structure was proposed and its implications for non-frequentistic subjective probabilities were investigated in an empirical, subjective estimation task. The basic idea was that distance relations in the cognitive structure can generate subjective probabilities that meet the formal requirement of a probability measure. These probabilities have certain consistency properties that are analogous to those possessed by frequentistic probability. The implications of this geometrical interpretation were discussed. The conlusion is that the results suggest interrelationships among our present classifications of subjective probability that may allow our theories the comprehensiveness they lack at present.

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