Origin of the water vapor responsible for the European extreme rainfalls of August 2002: 1. High-resolution simulations and tracking of air masses

Abstract

[1] This article investigates an extreme rainfall event occurred over wide areas of central Europe on August 11–13, 2002. By using a synergistic approach that includes regional modeling, air mass tracking, and observational data sets, the importance of moisture accumulation processes in the Western Mediterranean basin (WMB) is acknowledged as an important mechanism responsible for the magnitude of this event. The RAMS-HYPACT modeling system is used to track air masses from potential marine sources of evaporation. MODIS water vapor products, wind profilers and surface rain gauge measurements are used to substantiate our simulations. Results show that most of the precipitation occurring in central Europe during the initiation of the rainfall episode (August 11) came from vapor accumulated over 4 days (August 6–9) within the WMB: the vapor was transported, after the irruption of the Vb cyclone Ilse, through the Italian Peninsula and the Adriatic Sea, into the target area, causing the precipitation episode. On August 12 and 13 the marine sources of evaporation changed to include the north-Atlantic region. The north-African convergence region, the eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea are revealed to be sources more related to the intense rainfall experienced in eastern Europe. The subsidence-related processes through which pollutants and water vapor can accumulate for several days in the WMB are shown to be very relevant for this event. The quantification of the evaporative sources, responsible for the extreme rainfall events in central Europe, and the relative importance of marine and terrestrial sources within a chosen regional domain are discussed in the companion following article.