Organized violence, 1989–2019

Therése Pettersson,Magnus Öberg

doi:10.1177/0022343320934986

Abstract

This article reports on trends in organized violence, building on new data by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). The defeat of Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq has pushed the number of fatalities, almost 75,600, to its lowest level since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011. However, this de-escalation in Syria is countered by increased violence in Africa, as IS and other transnational jihadist groups have relocated their efforts there. Furthermore, violence has continued to increase in Afghanistan; UCDP recorded more than 31,200 fatalities in Afghanistan in 2019, which accounts for 40% of all fatalities from organized violence across the globe. The general decline in fatalities from organized violence does not correspond with the trend in the number of active conflicts, which remained on a historically high level. UCDP recorded 54 state-based conflicts in 2019, including seven wars. Twenty-eight state-based conflicts involved IS (Islamic State), al-Qaida or their affiliates. In the past decade, conflicts involving these transnational jihadist groups have driven many of the trends in organized violence.

Highlights

This article reports on trends in organized violence, building on new data by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)
The defeat of Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq has pushed the number of fatalities to its lowest level since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011, illustrated in Figure 1 and Table I
UCDP recorded more than 31,200 fatalities in Afghanistan in 2019, which accounts for 40% of all fatalities from organized violence across the

Summary

The remaining five wars were the same as last year

Afghanistan (government), Afghanistan (Islamic State), Syria (government), Somalia (government), and Yemen (government). 6 UCDP codes conflicts based on the stated goal of incompatibility. Afghanistan (government), Afghanistan (Islamic State), Syria (government), Somalia (government), and Yemen (government). 6 UCDP codes conflicts based on the stated goal of incompatibility. In Syria, this means that three different state-based conflicts have been active in recent years: over government, over the territory of Islamic State, and over both government and the territory Rojava Kurdistan. Fighting between the government of Syria and other opposition groups declined in 2019, in spite of the offensive in Idlib province, pitting the Syrian regime against different al-Qaida linked jihadists and Turkeybacked rebels. In Yemen – one of the worst cases of state-based violence in 2018 – battle-related deaths decreased drastically in 2019.8 This was partly due to the UN-brokered peace talks in Sweden in December 2018. Despite the de-escalation, the impact on civilians remained disastrous (UN, 2019; BBC, 2020)

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Findings

Conclusion