Abstract
A frequently voiced critique is that due to lower yields on organically managed farmlands, one cannot feed a country using organic agriculture. In this paper, we aim to mathematically disprove this claim by developing a linear programming model and produce a detailed agriculture plan for Turkey sufficient to feed her population with a 2400 kcal daily menu on average, solely comprising of organic foods. The model uses information about population sizes and food needs of 81 cities in Turkey, and yields of 120 food, feed, forage crops, and four animal products. Intensive and extensive livestock production methods as well as food transportation between cities has been incorporated into the model. The resulting problem with 950 thousand variables and 40 thousand constraints can be solved with an optimization package in under a minute. Results, prescribing how many acres of each crop should be grown in each city, indicate that to feed the country fully on organic produce, 63% of the arable land suffices, yielding 8.9 million hectares of unused land where further organic foods could be grown for export or aid. We also run the model under different scenarios: fully vegetarian diet, omnivore model, different transportation structures, drought conditions and a limit on fruit trees. With this work, we have shown that it is possible to feed the whole population of Turkey with an agricultural practice that is not harmful to human health, soil, water and air; respects biological cycles and reduces food miles and fossil fuel consumption, thus contributing to sustainability and fighting climate change. We tested preliminary scenarios to understand the robustness of organic agriculture in the face of extreme weather events. The proposed model can also be applied to other countries when appropriate data are used.
Highlights
A major effort goes into agricultural activities to produce food for the human population
Results, prescribing how many acres of each crop should be grown in each city, indicate that to feed the country fully on organic produce, 63% of the arable land suffices, yielding 8.9 million hectares of unused land where further organic foods could be grown for export or aid
We have shown that it is possible to feed the whole population of Turkey with an agricultural practice that is not harmful to human health, soil, water and air; respects biological cycles and reduces food miles and fossil fuel consumption, contributing to sustainability and fighting climate change
Summary
A major effort goes into agricultural activities to produce food for the human population. Long-term organic comparison trials in the US have shown that organic practices have the potential to better store carbon and nitrogen, resulting in higher soil quality, and allowing farmers to remain competitive in the marketplace (Delate et al, 2015) These characteristics of organic agriculture provide a solution for the economic problems of farmers by reducing unemployment and the dependence on off-farm inputs and help farmers to capture a higher proportion of the value added by giving a specific position to their products (Keyder & Yenal, 2011; Aktar & Ananias, 2005). To show that there is sufficient arable land in Turkey to feed the whole population solely with organic foods, we developed an organic agricultural plan for Turkey by using linear programming (LP), a renowned optimization technique successful in solving large real-world problems. With the use of an embedded transportation module we obtain results that lower fossil fuel consumption in food delivery
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