Ordinary kriging - and cokriging - based surrogate model for ionospheric TEC prediction using NavIC/GPS data

Abstract

The ionospheric total electron content (TEC) plays a major role in the estimation of positional accuracy of satellite-based navigation systems. TEC disturbs the transmission of the signal transmitted from the satellite to receiver, which leads to range error. Hence, the prediction of VTEC can rectify the range errors in advance. Navigation with Indian Constellation (NavIC) is a navigational satellite system that gives position of a user and time information in India. NavIC receiver is installed at ACSCE, Bangalore, and it is utilized to estimate vertical total electron content (VTEC). In this paper, VTEC estimated from ACSCE station and VTEC obtained from IISC station, Bangalore, are compared and also ordinary kriging-based surrogate model (OKSM) and cokriging-based surrogate model (COKSM) are developed for forecasting NavIC/GPS VTEC. In these models, input parameters comprise the time, Bt, SSN, Ap and F10.7. NavIC and GPS VTEC are predicted for quiet days, i.e. from 16/1/2018 to 26/1/2018 and from 7/8/2018 to 13/8/2018, by using previous one week of VTEC data, and input parameters belong to ACSCE (12.8914° N, 77.4657° E) and IISC (13.0219° N, 77.5671° E) stations, Bangalore. The VTEC prediction results from OKSM and COKSM are compared. It shows that OKSM results are comparatively better than COKSM. In order to validate our developed models, OKSM and COKSM prediction results are compared with the SWIF model during storm days. Based on the comparison, it is observed that RMSE of OKSM is 3.5202 TECU, COKSM gives RMSE as 4.7126 TECU, and the SWIF model’s RMSE is 4.6804. From the comparison results, it is evident that OKSM yields better prediction results than COKSM and SWIF. These results indicate that the proposed model will be useful for correcting range measurement data in advance.