Ordinal quantification of the concept of technology through pooled consensus

Abstract

This paper explores the possibility of combining multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis with the Delphi method to allow for the ordinal quantification of important attributes of technology. To demonstrate implementation of this method, 18 scientists and managers, with 227 pooled years of relevant industrial experience, were asked to assess the application of several pharmaceutical drug delivery technologies to particular prescription (Rx) and over‐the‐counter (OTC) products. Study participants were only asked to think about variables intrinsic to the concept of technology (here, differentiation, sophistication, and development cost) and to assume exogenous variables such as price as background constant. For comparable sets of technology‐product combinations participant evaluations were used to assess the following pilot MLR model in which:Market share = a +βd Differentiation +βS Sophistication +βc Development Cost.For OTC products, Differentiation, and to some extent Sophistication, were found to be the most important significant independent variables. For Rx products, Sophistication was the major significant independent variable. These findings make sense considering that OTC products are sold directly to end users whereas Rx products are dispensed through physicians or pharmacists.Further studies are warranted to see if given the statistical superiority of pooled consensus over individual forecasts, the method described here might also be used to help choose revenue‐maximizing products and to discover relevant product development principles.