Orderly-synergistic development of power generation industry: A China’s case study based on evolutionary game model

Abstract

Different from the expectations of energy development in other industrialized countries, China is pursuing an orderly-synergistic energy transition. The necessity and effect of orderliness-synergy in the sustainable development of China’s power generation industry during the transition period is focused in this paper. The orderly-synergistic development process can be regarded as the game of interest balance for both the clean energy power generation enterprises and the thermal power generation ones. Hence evolutionary game method with six Assumptions, basic model and normative analysis is adopted. And then to explain the process more scientifically, the numerical simulation with scenario analysis is used to study two types of power generation enterprises. Three important conclusions are drawn: (1) when two types of power generation enterprises make the “same direction” decision at the same time, the population stability can be formed within the industry; (2) the revenues of both clean power generation enterprises and thermal power generation enterprises have shown a positive correlation with adopting active strategies; (3) when the power generation industry tends to the policy orientation, the orderly-synergistic benefits will be smaller, however, when the power generation industry tends to the market orientation, the orderly-synergistic benefits will be greater. And then some recommendations are put forward.