Ordered weighted averaging operator used to enhance the accuracy of fuzzy predictor based on genetic algorithm

Abstract

In this paper, we have proposed a novel concept to optimise ordered weighted aggregation (OWA) based fuzzy time series predictor (FTSP) using genetic algorithm (GA). Firstly, accurateness of FTSP is enhanced by applying effective method of aggregation on past observations using OWA weights. These weights are determined on the basis of importance of fuzzy set in the system by employing regularly increasing monotonic (RIM) quantifiers. Subsequently, GA is used to optimise membership functions of FTSP by generating its wide range of parameters in the region of time series. Lastly, this model is capable of controlling its performance by varying GA parameters. To assess proposed method, we used dataset of enrolments and outpatient visits, as used by almost all previous research in this domain. Evaluation results indicate coalescing OWA and GA for FTSP significantly reduced mean square error (MSE) and average forecasting error rate (AFER).