Order, Disorder, Reorder: Can The Liberal International Order “Survive” the Sino-American Competition?

Abstract

The future of international politics today hinges on how the Sino-American rivalry unfolds. Views vary from expectations of peaceful evolution to hegemonic transition, but many fail to recognize the significant role the liberal international order (LIO) can play in shaping the course of events. Thanks to its structure and adaptability, the LIO is more than the mere environment surrounding this rivalry and may be the primary determinant of American and Chinese choices, steering relations toward cooperation. The success of the LIO during the post-WWII era is notably the product of the environment it has managed to create, characterized by mutual gains, as well as considerable costs in the event of a revisionist disruption. Moreover, the LIO has a structural character that enables it to exert influence on state behavior. This article, drawing on liberal internationalist theory, contends that the LIO demonstrates the substantial potential to emerge as the ultimate “victor” amidst the intensifying rivalry between the two major actors. By evaluating multiple arguments, the analysis concludes that a reformed version of the LIO, which accommodates both American and Chinese aspirations, includes a dual leadership mechanism in decision-making, and reflects the newly shaped power dynamics, offers a viable solution to the Sino-American competition.