Abstract
A specific orbital configuration—high obliquity combined with the June perihelion—marked the beginning of the past three interglacials. This suggests that the primary cause of the glacial cycle may be astronomical. An astronomical climate index (ACLIN) is introduced which combines the three orbital variables in the time-lag bivariant model designed to predict the major climate changes in the late and middle Pleistocene, and in the near future. ACLIN closely correlates with the major climatic events revealed by independently dated proxy climate indicators of the past 130,000 yr. It successfully differentiates the interglacials, and displays a 100,000-yr periodicity. It predicts an early end of the present inter glacial and the start of a new one in 114,000 yr.
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