Orbital and thermal evolutions of four potential targets for a sample return space mission to a primitive near-Earth asteroid

Abstract

In this paper, we present our study of the orbital and thermal evolutions, due to solar radiative heating, of four near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) considered as potential target candidates for sample return space missions to primitive asteroids. We used a dynamical model of the NEA population to estimate the most likely source region and orbital history of these objects. Then, for each asteroid, we integrated numerically over their entire lifetime a set of 14 initially indistinguishable orbit ( clones), obtained by small variations of the nominal initial conditions. Using a thermal model, we then computed surface and sub-surface temperatures of these bodies during their dynamical history. Our aim is to determine whether these bodies are likely to have experienced high temperature level, and whether great temperature changes can be expected due to the orbital changes as well as their maximum and minimum values. Such information is important in the framework of sample return space missions whose goal is to bring back pristine materials. The knowledge of the temperature range of materials at different depth over the orbital evolution of potential targets can help defining sampling strategies that ensure the likelihood that unaltered material will be brought back. Our results suggest that for all the considered potential targets, the surface has experienced for some time temperatures greater than 400 K and at most 500 K with 50% probability. This probability drops rapidly with increasing temperature. Sub-surface materials at a depth of only 3 cm are much more protected from high temperature and generally do not reach temperatures exceeding 450 K (with 50% probability). They should thus be unaltered at this depth at least from a Sun-driven heating point of view. On the other hand, surface material for some of the considered objects can have a range of temperature which can make them less reliable as pristine materials. However, it is assumed here that the same material is constantly exposed to solar heat, while regolith turnover may occur. The latter can be caused by different processes such as seismic shaking and/or impact cratering. This would reduce the total time that materials are exposed to a certain temperature. Thus, it is very likely that a sample collected from any of the four considered targets, or any primitive NEA with similar dynamical properties, will have components that will be thermally unaltered as long as some of it comes from only 3 to 5 cm depth. Such a depth is not considered difficult to reach with some of the current designs of sampling devices.