Oracle-type posterior contraction rates in Bayesian inverse problems

Abstract

We discuss Bayesian inverse problems in Hilbert spaces. The focus is on a fast concentration of the posterior probability around the unknown true solution as expressed in the concept of posterior contraction rates. This concentration is dominated by a parameter which controls the variance of the prior distribution. Previous results determine posterior contraction rates based on known solution smoothness. Here we show that an oracle-type parameter choice is possible. This is done by relating the posterior contraction rate to the root mean squared estimation error. In addition we show that the tail probability, which usually is bounded by using the Chebyshev inequality, has exponential decay, at least for a priori parameter choices. These results implement the exponential concentration of Gaussian measures in Hilbert spaces.