Option Prices Incorporate Fundamentals: Evidence from US Natural Gas Market

Abstract

We examine the incremental power of a large set of key fundamental, financial, and macroeconomic variables for forecasting the volatility of natural gas futures prices. Among other results, we find that the option implied volatility (IV) significantly improves the performance of predictions regarding the future volatility of the natural gas market. We also identify several fundamental and macroeconomic variables (e.g., open interests, default premiums, and the return of the housing index) which are statistically-significant in a predictive regression even after including the option implied volatility. On the other hand, we do not find a substantial increase in the adjusted-R2 of the predictive regressions (including IVs) after adding significant fundamental variables. The small incremental predictive power of fundamental variables is interpreted as a sign of the efficiency of the options market. We also observe that the adjusted-R2s of predictive regressions are higher when the time-to-maturity of the futures contract increases. Our results can help users of natural gas volatility forecasts (e.g., producers, utility companies, and portfolio managers) make better informed and more efficient operational and financial decisions.