Optimum predictors of therapeutic outcome in HCV patients in Pakistan.

Abstract

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) constitutes a major public health issue in Pakistan. Interferon α and ribavirin is used widely in routine practice in HCV infected patients in Pakistan.Treatment prediction is an important tool in therapy management. The present study aims to evaluate trends of predictive variables of treatment outcome in patients with different genotypes. The analysis comprised of 921 patients infected with different HCV genotypes. All the patients received IFN α-2b combined with ribavirin for 24 weeks. Overall, 60.2% patients achieved Sustained virologic response (SVR). In females sustained virologic response (SVR) was higher in age group <40 years (77.2%) than ≥40-50 years (60%) but in male SVR was almost equal in both age groups. We also found higher SVR with low pretreatment viral load (72.4%, P < 0.0001). Sustained Virologic Response in genotype 3a was 63.1%, 3b was 55%, 1a was 36.3% and 1b was 35% 3a +3b was 55.0% and 1a+3a was 42.9%. According to multivariable logistic regression analysis age < 40 years (2.0; 95%CI, 1.49-2.84; P = 0.0001), low pretreatment RNA level<800,000 IU/ml (4.0; 95%CI, 2.64-6.17; P = 0.0001), early virologic response at week 12 (12.3; 95%CI, 8.18-18.58; P < 0.0001) and non-fatty liver (2.5; 95%CI, 3.6-6.2; P = 0.005) showed significance for SVR. Nucleotide substitution in 5'UTR before treatment failed to show any characteristic pattern that has correlation with sustained response. Subtype 3a showed 95% presence among patients with age <40 years while older patients showed 79.9%.