Optimizing Vaccination Strategies against African Swine Fever Using Spatial Data from Wild Boars in Lithuania.

Abstract

African swine fever (ASF) is one of the most severe suid diseases, impacting the pig industry and wild suid populations. Once an ASF vaccine is available, identifying a sufficient density of vaccination fields will be crucial to achieve eradication success. In 2020-2023, we live-trapped and monitored 27 wild boars in different areas of Lithuania, in which the wild boars were fed at artificial stations. We built a simulation study to estimate the probability of a successful ASF vaccination as a function of different eco-epidemiological factors. The average 32-day home range size across all individuals was 16.2 km2 (SD = 16.9). The wild boars made frequent visits of short durations to the feeding sites rather than long visits interposed by long periods of absence. A feeding site density of 0.5/km2 corresponded to an expected vaccination rate of only 20%. The vaccination probability increased to about 75% when the feeding site density was 1.0/km2. Our results suggest that at least one vaccination field/km2 should be used when planning an ASF vaccination campaign to ensure that everyone in the population has at least 5-10 vaccination sites available inside the home range. Similar studies should be conducted in the other ecological contexts in which ASF is present today or will be present in the future, with the objective being to estimate a context-specific relationship between wild boar movement patterns and an optimal vaccination strategy.