Optimizing urban water sustainability: Integrating deep learning, genetic algorithm, and CMIP6 GCM for groundwater potential zone prediction within a social-ecological-technological framework

Abstract

This study presents a novel approach to groundwater resource assessment and drought vulnerability, achieved through integrating cutting-edge deep-learning algorithms into a comprehensive framework. In regions susceptible to drought, ensuring groundwater availability is of paramount importance. Addressing this critical need, our research employs an ensemble of advanced algorithms, including long short-term memory, convolutional neural network, deep neural network, and recurrent neural network. These algorithms are further enhanced through optimization using a genetic algorithm to map groundwater potential zones (GWPZ). Leveraging model validation based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCROC), the long short-term memory-genetic algorithm model emerges as the superior algorithm, boasting the highest values of AUCROC: 0.995 for training and 0.996 for testing). Utilizing this optimized model, this study developed the GWPZ map, subsequently overlaying it with established drought maps developed by the Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council across distinct periods—Pre-Kharif, Kharif, and Rabi. The derived baseline GWPZ spatial distribution revealed five categories—very low (34.99%), low (27.67%), moderate (13.26%), high (11.71%), and very high (12.37%)—and their intersection with drought-prone regions, indicative of probabilities of drought occurrence ranging from very severe to low (15.14% to 24.69%). Moreover, employing the best-predicted model, this study projected future GWPZ for 2050 and 2100 using the coupled model intercomparison project 6 general circulation model data under the ambit of three distinct shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs): SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. Our findings suggested a contraction in the groundwater potential area by the end of the twenty-first century (2100). This pioneering integration sheds light on the intricate relationship between groundwater availability and drought susceptibility, furnishing invaluable insights for formulating targeted water resource management strategies. By amalgamating advanced computational techniques with geospatial analyses, this research contributes to a more comprehensive grasp of water resource dynamics within the context of escalating climate challenges. Consequently, it offers a foundation for informed decision-making and implementing sustainable water management practices in regions grappling with the dual challenges of groundwater scarcity and recurrent droughts.