Optimizing trigger timing in minimal ovarian stimulation for In Vitro fertilization using machine learning models with random search hyperparameter tuning

Abstract

Various studies have emphasized the importance of identifying the optimal Trigger Timing (TT) for the trigger shot in In Vitro Fertilization (IVF), which is crucial for the successful maturation and release of oocytes, especially in minimal ovarian stimulation treatments. Despite its significance for the ultimate success of IVF, determining the precise TT remains a complex challenge for physicians due to the involvement of multiple variables. This study aims to enhance TT by developing a machine learning multi-output model that predicts the expected number of retrieved oocytes, mature oocytes (MII), fertilized oocytes (2 PN), and useable blastocysts within a 48-h window after the trigger shot in minimal stimulation cycles. By utilizing this model, physicians can identify patients with possible early, late, or on-time trigger shots. The study found that approximately 27 % of treatments administered the trigger shot on a suboptimal day, but optimizing the TT using the developed Artificial Intelligence (AI) model can potentially increase useable blastocyst production by 46 %. These findings highlight the potential of predictive models as a supplementary tool for optimizing trigger shot timing and improving IVF outcomes, particularly in minimal ovarian stimulation. The experimental results underwent statistical validation, demonstrating the accuracy and performance of the model. Overall, this study emphasizes the value of AI prediction models in enhancing TT and making the IVF process safer and more efficient.