Optimizing Time-Series forecasting using stacked deep learning framework with enhanced adaptive moment estimation and error correction

Abstract

Time-series forecasting is essential for decision-making activities, and deep learning models have shown promising results in this field. However, existing models face challenges in capturing the complex non-linear patterns and randomness of real-world time-series data. To address this issue, we propose a novel stacked deep learning framework that combines a bi-directional long-short-term memory network, convolutional 1D, and max-pooling-1D layers in each stack. We also introduce an enhanced version of adaptive moment estimation and an error correction method to improve the model's accuracy and convergence speed. We evaluate our model's performance using four real-world datasets (air quality, PM2.5, electricity price, and securities lending) and compare it with existing models based on statistical measures such as mean absolute error, mean squared error, and standard deviation. The results demonstrate that our proposed model outperforms existing models significantly, achieving a ∼ 52 % improvement in mean absolute error for air quality data, a ∼ 36 % improvement in mean squared error for the PM2.5 dataset, and a ∼ 27.5 % improvement in mean squared error for electricity price data. The enhanced adaptive moment estimation and error correction method further improve the model's accuracy and generalization capabilities, making it suitable for multi-domain data sets. Our proposed model has potential applications in various fields, including manufacturing, traffic prediction, weather forecasting, environmental monitoring, finance, and energy management.