Abstract
Numerical wind mapping is currently the wind power industry’s standard for preliminary assessments for sites of good wind resources. Of the various available numerical models, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are best suited for modeling mesoscale wind flows across small islands. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) NWP model was optimized for simulating the wind resources of the Caribbean islands of Trinidad and Tobago in terms of spin-up period for developing mesoscale features, the input initial and boundary conditions, and the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations. Hourly model simulations of wind speed and wind direction for a one-month period were compared with corresponding 10 m level wind observations. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis of 1.875° horizontal resolution was found to be better suited to provide initial and boundary conditions (ICBCs) over the 1° resolution NCEP final analysis (FNL); 86% of modeled wind speeds were within ±2 m/s of measured values at two locations when the coarse resolution NCEP reanalysis was used as compared with 55–64% of modeled wind speeds derived from FNL. Among seven PBL schemes tested, the Yonsei University PBL scheme with topographic drag enabled minimizes the spatial error in wind speed (mean bias error +0.16 m/s, root-mean-square error 1.53 m/s and mean absolute error 1.21 m/s) and is capable of modeling the bimodal wind speed histogram. These sensitivity tests provide a suitable configuration for the WRF model for mapping the wind resources over Trinidad and Tobago, which is a factor in developing a wind energy sector in these islands.
Highlights
The economy and gross domestic product (GDP) of Trinidad and Tobago, the southernmost islands of the Caribbean, are hinged on the energy sector, with as much as 80% of export revenues coming from the petrochemical sector [1]
Error statistics (MBE, mean absolute error (MABE), root-mean-square error (RMSE)) that were computed using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model output at the 1 km resolution and station data indicate that using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and final analysis (FNL) produce similar wind speed values with NCEP possibly producing a greater number of more realistic hourly predictions of the mean wind speed
Various model configurations of the WRF model that minimize the errors in the wind resources of the southernmost Caribbean islands of Trinidad and Tobago were investigated
Summary
The economy and gross domestic product (GDP) of Trinidad and Tobago, the southernmost islands of the Caribbean, are hinged on the energy sector, with as much as 80% of export revenues coming from the petrochemical sector [1]. The components of the NWP model that influence the accuracy of the simulations include the initial and boundary atmospheric conditions (reanalysis data) (e.g., [25]), the spin-up time the model takes to generate mesoscale information that is absent from the coarse boundary conditions (e.g., [26]), and the parameterization of the influence of turbulence on wind velocity components (e.g., [18,27]). The objectives of this study were to determine the spin-up period for developing mesoscale features as well as assess which one of two input atmospheric data sets and seven PBL parameterizations available to the WRF model would optimize the accuracy of simulating the wind resources for the area of interest.
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