Optimizing the sustainable energy transition: A case study on Trinidad and Tobago

Abstract

Trinidad and Tobago is a small island developing state (SIDS) with one of the largest emitters of CO2 per capita globally - linked to a reliance on oil and gas. With the country’s commitment to sustainable development goals and climate change agreements, rapid redesign of the national power sector is critical to promoting a sustainable energy transition. Our study examines the minimisation of electricity costs (LCOE) and greenhouse gas emissions (GHGLC), using a mixed-integer linear programming model (MILP) across 5 scenarios describing the national power generation system. Our results show an LCOE of $USD 61.72 per MWh and GHGLC of 756 kgCO2eq per MWh, attributed to current take-or-pay Power Purchasing Agreements (PPA) aligned to Scenario 1 A. Coupled improvements in power generation technology and resource efficiency (Scenario 2), results in LCOE and GHGLC reductions of up to 40% ($USD 36.94 per MWh) and 24% (572 kgCO2eq per MWh), respectively. Furthermore, the incorporation of low carbon H2, MeOH and NH3 into the process system was deemed infeasible at current prices, despite potential avoided emissions when compared to local business-as-usual operations. Lastly, looking ahead to 2030 shows a general increase in LCOE of $USD 8.5 – 14 per MWh and GHGLC of 8 – 27 kgCO2eq, attributed to higher grid demand and natural gas prices. Thus, our results support the need for new policies linked to active decarbonisation within the national energy sector and removal of current legislation that discourages the application of low carbon technologies linked to sustainable development. Ultimately, through a multi-objective optimisation framework, our results highlight the value of systems-based planning and implementation in the sustainable energy transition across the Caribbean region, in accordance with sustainable development goals (SDGs).