Optimizing planting dates and cultivars can enhance China's potato yield under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming

Abstract

Rising temperatures and varying precipitation patterns pose huge challenges to the global potato supply. Understanding the adaptation potential of potato to climate change is urgently needed to help develop effective measures for future agriculture and food security. In this study, we evaluated future potato yield changes under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios, and explored potential adaptation strategies by optimizing planting dates (PD) and cultivars across China's potato production regions. Compared with the baseline period (1986–2015), potato yields would increase in North single (NS) and Central double (CD) cropping system zones, but would decrease in South winter (SW) and Southwest mixed (SWM) cropping system zones under the 1.5 °C warming scenario without considering adaptation measures. Under the 2.0 °C warming scenario, potato yield would increase across China's potato planting zones except for SWM. Adjusting PD would be more effective for increasing rainfed potato yield across China than changing cultivars under the two warming scenarios. Overall, late PD coupled with a late-maturing cultivar would be the optimal selection for rainfed potato production. For irrigated potato, adjusting PD would be more effective than changing cultivars in NS and SW, but the opposite would be true in CD. The optimization of a single measure would have little impact on yield in SWM. The optimum PD would be early PD in NS and late PD in SW and SWM. The optimum cultivar would be late-maturing in NS, CD, and SWM, and middle-maturing in SW. Under the optimal combination, rainfed and irrigated potato yield would increase by 3.4–44.2% and 2.6–49.3%, respectively, under the 1.5 °C warming scenario, and would increase by 7.1–51.6% and 8.5–65.2%, respectively, under the 2.0 °C warming scenario. Our study results provide valuable information for policymakers and stakeholders involved in potato production to aid in planning agricultural strategies to safeguard potato production.