Abstract

The huge financial requirement of essential transport infrastructure system has challenged the availability of government funding. To fill the fiscal gap, public–private partnerships (PPP) framework has been applied as a promising mechanism. The success of PPP projects, however, is significantly influenced by a number of critical factors. Therefore, an optimum and comprehensive evaluation of projects, reflecting critical risks, supporting investment decisions, has been highly demanded by both the public and private sector. Various works, in previous studies, have been spreading scientific models assessing risks in the construction industry, and some of them focused on the area of PPP. However, the majority of published methods just concentrated on addressing and leveling risks, and there is a lack of application in evaluating and comparing different PPP projects, as investment options, with regards to key issues. Hence, in the situation of limited budget, the public and private partners may struggle with deciding the most potential alternative. To overcome this real-world challenge, this paper, by proposing a mathematical model, attempts to optimize investment selection by evaluating different projects' riskiness with the focus on transport projects. Different actual PPP transport projects in Vietnam were employed as case studies to analyze the practicality of the proposed application.

Highlights

  • Developing countries, especially in Asia, have experienced rapid economic development in recent years which has increased the demand for investment in infrastructure systems

  • The majority of published methods just concentrated on addressing and levelling risks, and there is a lack of application in comparing different PPP projects with focus on the transport sector, as investment options, with regards to key issues

  • Different actual PPP transport projects in Vietnam are employed as case studies to analyse the practicality of the proposed application

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Summary

Introduction

Developing countries, especially in Asia, have experienced rapid economic development in recent years which has increased the demand for investment in infrastructure systems. Evaluating previous academic and practical attempt in examining construction projects, Shevchenko et al [20] emphasized that the multi-factor assessment including comprehensive qualitative analysis is essential To support their statement, authors established an approach based on qualitative measurement weighing critical issues and influential factors, to suggest mitigation strategies. Previous methods have been considered as difficult to use in real practice [20] To overcome this real-world challenge, this paper attempts to utilize original AHP in conjunction with Computation of risk score to reinforce investment selection by comparing the riskiness of different projects, concerning critical risks associated. Evaluation resulting from this developed model could be extremely valuable for both sectors in examining different options regarding risk perspectives. Different actual PPP transport projects in Vietnam are employed as case studies to analyse the practicality of the proposed application

The Proposed Model
AHP-based Investment Selection
Vector of Risk Group Weights
Matrix of Option Score
Investment Option Ranking
Data Experimentation
Results and Discussion
Matrix of Option Scores
Conclusions and Future Research
Full Text
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