Optimizing future mortality rate prediction of extreme temperature-related cardiovascular disease based on skewed distribution in peninsular Malaysia

Abstract

Abstract The bias correction method (BCM) is useful in reducing the statistically downscaled biases of global climate models’ (GCM) outputs and preserving statistical moments of the hydrological series. However, BCM is less efficient under changed future conditions due to the stationary assumption and performs poorly in removing bias at extremes, thereby producing unreliable bias-corrected data. Thus, the existing BCM with normal distribution is improved by incorporating skewed distributions into the model with linear covariate (BCM-QMskewed). In this study, BCM-QMskewed is developed to reduce biases in the extreme temperature data of peninsular Malaysia. The input is the MIROC5 model output gridded data and observations sourced by the Malaysian Department of Irrigation and Drainage (1976–2005). BCM-QMskewed with lognormal (LGNORM) and Gumbel (GUM) has shown considerable skill in correcting biases, capturing extreme and nonstationarity of current and future extreme temperatures data series corresponding to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for 2006–2100 based on model diagnostics and precision analysis. Higher projection of extreme temperatures is more pronounced under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 with precise estimates ranging from 33 to 42 °C and 30 to 32 °C, respectively. Finally, the projection of extreme temperatures is used to calculate cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality rate which coincides with high extreme temperatures ranging between 0.002 and 0.014.