Abstract
The effectiveness of policymakers’ decision-making in times of crisis depends largely on their ability to integrate and make sense of information. The COVID-19 crisis confronts governments with the difficult task of making decisions in the interest of public health and safety. Essentially, policymakers have to react to a threat, of which the extent is unknown, and they are making decisions under time constraints in the midst of immense uncertainty. The stakes are high, the issues involved are complex and require the careful balancing of several interests, including (mental) health, the economy, and human rights. These circumstances render policymakers’ decision-making processes vulnerable to errors and biases in the processing of information, thereby increasing the chances of faulty decision making processes with poor outcomes. Prior research has identified three main information processing failures that can distort group decision-making processes and can lead to negative outcomes: (1) failure to search for and share information, (2) failure to elaborate on and analyze information that is not in line with earlier information and (3) failure to revise and update conclusions and policies in the light of new information. To date, it has not yet been explored how errors and biases underlying these information-processing failures impact decision-making processes in times of crisis. In this narrative review, we outline how groupthink, a narrow focus on the problem of containing the virus, and escalation of commitment may pose real risks to decision-making processes in handling the COVID-19 crisis and may result in widespread societal damages. Hence, it is vital that policymakers take steps to maximize the quality of the decision-making process and increase the chances of positive outcomes as the crisis goes forward. We propose group reflexivity—a deliberate process of discussing team goals, processes, or outcomes—as an antidote to these biases and errors in decision-making. Specifically, we recommend several evidence-based reflexivity tools that could easily be implemented to counter these information-processing errors and improve decision-making processes in uncertain times.
Highlights
The COVID-19 crisis has left few, if any, countries untouched and world governments have been faced with the difficult task of making decisions in the interest of public safety and health under conditions of tremendous uncertainty and time pressure
It is vital that policymakers take steps to maximize the quality of the decision-making process and increase the chances of positive outcomes as the crisis goes forward
Errors and biases in decision-making have the potential to result in widespread societal damages (Caduff, 2020; Schippers, 2020; Joffe, 2021), and it is vital that policymakers take steps to maximize the quality of the decision-making process (Halpern et al, 2020) and increase the chances of positive outcomes as the crisis goes forward
Summary
The COVID-19 crisis has left few, if any, countries untouched and world governments have been faced with the difficult task of making decisions in the interest of public safety and health under conditions of tremendous uncertainty and time pressure. Previous research has shown that a different framing and communication of exponential growth functions in terms of doubling times rather than in terms of case growth and daily exponential growth rates tends to decrease exponential growth prediction bias (cf Schonger and Sele, 2020) and can improve the quality of the decisionmaking process by leading to a more accurate analysis of the data at hand It appears that various framing effects in the public discourse may have negatively impacted policymakers’ information elaboration and analysis of the potential implications of policies. As new information becomes available, and more widespread knowledge of the effects of the crisis become visible, it is crucial that policymakers try to avoid information-processing failures by engaging in an ongoing process of reassessing the situation, incorporating newly arising evidence, and being willing to change course of action based on the evidence
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