Optimized multivariate grey forecasting model for predicting electricity consumption: A China study

Abstract

The power industry has significantly contributed to the prosperity of the national economy, and accurate prediction can reflect the development trend of the power system and power market. The short-term electricity consumption of a country exhibits both annual growth certainty and random change uncertainty, which can be suitably considered with the grey forecasting model. Regarding the short-term trends of electricity consumption in China, this study established an optimized multivariate grey forecasting model with variable background values (OGM(1, N) model) to forecast the electricity consumption level in China. The established model could be converted into the GM(1, N) model and different variant models by adjusting the model parameters. With Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai as examples, the OGM(1, N) model is compared to the GM(1, N) model and its variant model. The excellent prediction results confirm the feasibility of the proposed model. Then, the proposed model is applied to study China’s electricity consumption. The research results indicated that the OGM(1, N) model attains an extraordinarily high precision in the prediction of electricity consumption and can provide a practical reference for accurate electricity consumption prediction.