Abstract
Spatiotemporal analysis of fire activity is vital for determining why wildfires occur where they do, assessing wildfire risks, and developing locally relevant wildfire risk reduction strategies. Using various spatial statistical methods, we determined hot spots of large wildfires (> 100 acres) in Washington, the United States, and mapped spatiotemporal variations in large wildfire activity from 1970 to 2020. Our results found that all hot spots are located east of the crest of the Cascade Range. Our spatiotemporal analysis found that the geographic area wherein most of the state’s acres burned has shrunk considerably since 1970 and has become concentrated over the north-central portion of the state over time. This concentration of large wildfire activity in north-central Washington was previously unquantified and may provide important information for hazard mitigation efforts in that area. Our results highlight the advantages of using spatial statistical methods that could aid the development of natural hazard mitigation plans and risk reduction strategies by characterizing previous hazard occurrences spatially and spatiotemporally.
Highlights
The increase in large, severe wildfires in the state of Washington over the past few decades (Wing and Long 2015) follows what is generally happening in wildfireprone regions around the world
Our discussion includes how our techniques and their mapping products could be used in local hazard mitigation plans to help communities meet Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) requirements for hazard type, location, and extent identification (FEMA 2011b) as an effort to address the knowledge gap we identified in the literature
It should be noted that our study focuses on wildfire location and acres burned, which on fire-adapted forests is perhaps of minor importance for determining impacts compared to fire severity, for example
Summary
The increase in large, severe wildfires in the state of Washington over the past few decades (Wing and Long 2015) follows what is generally happening in wildfireprone regions around the world. Large wildfires that directly impact the built environment and populated areas are often followed by short-term economic instability, and, in extreme and deadly events, long-term recovery into the billions of dollars (von Kaenel 2020). Wildfires that do directly impact communities and result in property damage go beyond physical damage and economic impacts. Wildfire smoke is diminishing air quality in the western United States (McClure and Jaffe 2018) with observable increases in mortality among some Washington residents (Doubleday et al 2020). Wildfires can trigger cascading impacts or multi-hazard events that can include flooding (Brogan et al 2017) and erosion and sedimentation (Sankey et al 2017)
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