Optimization of Urban Spatial Development Against Multiple Sustainability Objectives and Climate Risks

Abstract

Spatial optimization is used to identify best trade-off spatial development plans which mitigate conflicts between risk and sustainability objectives. A spatial optimization framework was developed to optimize the following risk and sustainability objectives; (1) minimizing risk from heat waves; (2) minimizing risk from flooding; (3) minimizing the distance of new development to the current CBD to minimize travel costs; (4) minimizing urban sprawl to prevent increased travel costs; and (5) preventing the development of green-space. The framework is applied to a real case study in the North East of England, where the implications of forecast development on these objectives are assessed against the objectives outlined. The resulting Pareto-optimal solutions provide planners with a range of robust spatial development patterns known to be best trade-offs. Finally the implications and utility for risk planners are considered.