Abstract
Land use and cover change is an important concept in the study of ecosystem services, especially in ecologically fragile areas. This study generated three scenarios, namely historical trend (HT), national planning (NP), and windbreak and sand fixation (WS), by using the CLUMondo model and Bayesian belief network (BBN) to explore land use with diverse demands. The CLUMondo model was utilized to simulate the land use probability surface of Horqin Sandy Land in 2025 under different scenarios. A BBN was constructed to investigate the net primary productivity (NPP), crop production (CP), and wind protection and sand fixation (WPSF) of Horqin Sandy Land in 2025 under uncertain land use to identify the short board areas of various services. The following results were obtained from the analysis. (1) The land use pattern of Horqin Sandy Land in 2025 under the HT scenario will be dominated by cultivated land expansion and grassland reduction. Under the NP scenario, forest will increase, and unused land and grassland will decrease considerably. Under the WS scenario, cultivated land will still maintain a similar growth state, but the difference is that forest and grassland will significantly increase. (2) NPP had the highest probability of being the Highest and the lowest probability of being Low, whereas CP and WPSF obtained the highest probability of being Medium and the lowest probability of being Higher. (3) Tuquan County and Wengniute Banner with a high probability of providing few ecosystem services should be regarded as key areas for ecological restoration. Kailu County and Horqin Left-wing Middle Banner can provide higher ecosystem services. The methodology adopted in this study establishes the connection between the land use probability surface and the optimized pattern of ecosystem services and can therefore be applied in areas where multi-objective comprehensive improvement of ecosystem services is expected.
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