Optimization of temperature prediction algorithms and simulation of future neighborhood-scale thermal environments in Chongqing

Abstract

With climate change and urbanization, predicting the outdoor thermal environment of residential areas has become increasingly crucial, particularly during extreme weather conditions. Existing studies lack a comprehensive approach to optimizing temperature prediction algorithms for Chongqing and simulating extreme thermal environments at the neighborhood scale for future decades. This study employed various algorithms, including Levenberg-Marquardt optimization, Monte Carlo simulation, ARIMA modeling, and SARIMA prediction, to simulate and forecast temperature data for the central urban area of Chongqing from 2014 to 2023. By assessing metrics such as root mean square error (RMSE), R-squared (R2), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), the most effective prediction algorithm was identified. Results indicate that the Levenberg-Marquardt optimization algorithm, known for its nonlinear curve fitting capabilities, demonstrated superior performance in both the test and training sets, achieving an RMSE of 0.82 °C, MAPE of 1.81 %, and R2 of 0.75. This algorithm was subsequently used to forecast the outdoor temperature trend in Chongqing from 2024 to 2050, while also simulating the outdoor wind field, temperature distribution, building surface temperatures, and wind speeds in a residential district at neighborhood scale for 2030, 2040, and 2050 at a building density of 40 %. Findings reveal that peak pedestrian-level temperatures could reach 45.62 °C, and peak roof surface temperatures could reach 93.93 °C under extreme conditions. Furthermore, the study proposes practical recommendations for building layouts and cooling strategies. These findings are expected to improve residential planning in Chongqing, enhance residents' quality of life, and provide insights for other regions facing future temperature changes.