Abstract
Evaluation of appropriate physics parameterization schemes for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is vital for accurately forecasting tropical cyclones. Three cyclones Nargis, Titli and Fani have been chosen to investigate the combination of five cloud microphysics (MP), three cumulus convection (CC), and two planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes of the WRF model (ver. 4.0) with ARW core with respect to track and intensity to determine an optimal combination of these physical schemes. The initial and boundary conditions for sensitivity experiments are drawn from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global forecasting system (GFS) data. Simulated track and intensity of three cyclonic cases are compared with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) observations. One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) is applied to check the significance of the data obtained from the model. Further, Tukey’s test is applied for post-hoc analysis in order to identify the cluster of treatments close to IMD observations for all three cyclones. Results are obtained through the statistical analysis; average root means square error (RMSE) of intensity throughout the cyclone period and time error at landfall with the step-by-step elimination method. Through the elimination method, the optimal scheme combination is obtained. The YSU planetary boundary layer with Kain–Fritsch cumulus convection and Ferrier microphysics scheme combination is identified as an optimal combination in this study for the forecasting of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal.
Highlights
Evaluation of appropriate physics parameterization schemes for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is vital for accurately forecasting tropical cyclones
The initial and boundary conditions are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Analysis and Forecasting System (GFS) data available at 0.5° × 0.5° resolution, with time varying boundary conditions updated at every 6 h interval
One way analysis of variance (ANOVA) has been conducted on the values obtained after the model simulation with thirty combinations of physics schemes along with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) observations for intensity and track variables
Summary
Evaluation of appropriate physics parameterization schemes for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is vital for accurately forecasting tropical cyclones. The YSU planetary boundary layer with Kain–Fritsch cumulus convection and Ferrier microphysics scheme combination is identified as an optimal combination in this study for the forecasting of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal. Sensitivity studies have been conducted to identify the combination of suitable physics schemes for prediction of track and intensity of tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal. In order to obtain reasonable optimal combination of schemes of WRF model, three severe cyclonic cases over Bay of Bengal (Nargis-2008; Titli-2018 and Fani-2019) are considered in this study. These cyclones are severe cyclones considered as a sample for the entire population of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal. Central pressure (CP; hPa) and 10-m maximum sustained wind (MSW; m s−1) are used to estimate the intensity of tropical cyclone
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