Optimization of numerical weather/wave prediction models based on information geometry and computational techniques

Abstract

The last years a new highly demanding framework has been set for environmental sciences and applied mathematics as a result of the needs posed by issues that are of interest not only of the scientific community but of today's society in general: global warming, renewable resources of energy, natural hazards can be listed among them. Two are the main directions that the research community follows today in order to address the above problems: The utilization of environmental observations obtained from in situ or remote sensing sources and the meteorological-oceanographic simulations based on physical-mathematical models. In particular, trying to reach credible local forecasts the two previous data sources are combined by algorithms that are essentially based on optimization processes. The conventional approaches in this framework usually neglect the topological-geometrical properties of the space of the data under study by adopting least square methods based on classical Euclidean geometry tools. In the present work new optimization techniques are discussed making use of methodologies from a rapidly advancing branch of applied Mathematics, the Information Geometry. The latter prove that the distributions of data sets are elements of non-Euclidean structures in which the underlying geometry may differ significantly from the classical one. Geometrical entities like Riemannian metrics, distances, curvature and affine connections are utilized in order to define the optimum distributions fitting to the environmental data at specific areas and to form differential systems that describes the optimization procedures. The methodology proposed is clarified by an application for wind speed forecasts in the Kefaloniaisland, Greece.