Optimization of fleet structure and investment evaluation – the cargo owner's fleet perspective

Abstract

PurposeEnergy groups are cargo owners with large amounts of energy sources (such as coal) to transport. To achieve a satisfactory tradeoff between the reliability requirements of the sea transportation process and the need to control the investment cost, they usually set up a self-owned fleet supplemented by a chartered fleet. This paper aims to investigate the best fleet structure and to evaluate the investment scheme under volatile circumstances in the shipping market.Design/methodology/approachThe authors construct a mathematical model to determine the ratio of the self-owned fleet to the total fleet to minimize fleet operating costs. The volatility of both freight rates and oil prices is taken into consideration. The CPLEX solver is used to empirically analyze real data from an energy group in China, and the ship investment plan is evaluated considering the technical and economic feasibility.FindingsIf the ratio of the self-owned fleet to the total fleet is increased to the optimal of 90.40%, the total operating cost is reduced by 33.98%. Thus, the energy group should increase its capacity with a Panamax vessel of approximately 82,000 DWT. Purchasing a 5-year-old secondhand ship and building a new ship both have good investment return indicators.Originality/valueFor cargo owners engaging in transporting bulk cargo domestically in China, the suggested fleet ratio can provide a reference with a universal application scale, given the boundary economic conditions (including the volatility of freight rates and oil prices in the shipping market) in the paper.