Optimization of Evacuation Warnings Prior to a Hurricane Disaster

Dian Sun,Rajan Batta,Jee Kang,Yan Song

doi:10.3390/su9112152

Abstract

The key purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that optimization of evacuation warnings by time period and impacted zone is crucial for efficient evacuation of an area impacted by a hurricane. We assume that people behave in a manner consistent with the warnings they receive. By optimizing the issuance of hurricane evacuation warnings, one can control the number of evacuees at different time intervals to avoid congestion in the process of evacuation. The warning optimization model is applied to a case study of Hurricane Sandy using the study region of Brooklyn. We first develop a model for shelter assignment and then use this outcome to model hurricane evacuation warning optimization, which prescribes an evacuation plan that maximizes the number of evacuees. A significant technical contribution is the development of an iterative greedy heuristic procedure for the nonlinear formulation, which is shown to be optimal for the case of a single evacuation zone with a single evacuee type case, while it does not guarantee optimality for multiple zones under unusual circumstances. A significant applied contribution is the demonstration of an interface of the evacuation warning method with a public transportation scheme to facilitate evacuation of a car-less population. This heuristic we employ can be readily adapted to the case where response rate is a function of evacuation number in prior periods and other variable factors. This element is also explored in the context of our experiment.

Highlights

In 2012, Hurricane Sandy made landfall in the U.S and inundated parts of New York City (NYC), which caused substantial loss of lives and property damage
Our study develops a method to provide a schedule of sending evacuation warnings and helps reduce congestion during a hurricane evacuation
The model determines warning sending sources in different time periods during the evacuation process. Both self-evacuation and public transportation evacuation are considered in this methodology

Summary

Introduction

In 2012, Hurricane Sandy made landfall in the U.S and inundated parts of New York City (NYC), which caused substantial loss of lives and property damage. Storm surge, high winds, inland flooding, fires and heavy snow were all recorded in association with Sandy, as up to 60 million people in 24 states were affected [1]. In order to reduce injury and mortality from hurricanes, the necessity of efficient evacuation management is well recognized. A major problem encountered during hurricane evacuation is unexpected congestion, which reduces traffic flows, especially in metropolitan areas, and it can be catastrophic and life threatening [2,3]. The most notable lesson in this regard is that an evacuation plan can fail because of excessive reliance on automobiles, resulting in traffic congestion and fuel shortages [4]. Congestion can cause vehicles to run out of gas and create gridlock of the evacuation system, frustrating evacuees [5]. A study prescribed an evacuation plan which minimized the total congestion-related evacuation time [6]

Methods

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Discussion

Conclusion