Abstract
This paper assesses the potentiality of certainty factor models (CF) for the best suitable causative factors extraction for landslide susceptibility mapping in the Sado Island, Niigata Prefecture, Japan. To test the applicability of CF, a landslide inventory map provided by National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) was split into two subsets: (i) 70% of the landslides in the inventory to be used for building the CF based model; (ii) 30% of the landslides to be used for the validation purpose. A spatial database with fifteen landslide causative factors was then constructed by processing ALOS satellite images, aerial photos, topographical and geological maps. CF model was then applied to select the best subset from the fifteen factors. Using all fifteen factors and the best subset factors, landslide susceptibility maps were produced using statistical index (SI) and logistic regression (LR) models. The susceptibility maps were validated and compared using landslide locations in the validation data. The prediction performance of two susceptibility maps was estimated using the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC). The result shows that the area under the ROC curve (AUC) for the LR model (AUC = 0.817) is slightly higher than those obtained from the SI model (AUC = 0.801). Further, it is noted that the SI and LR models using the best subset outperform the models using the fifteen original factors. Therefore, we conclude that the optimized factor model using CF is more accurate in predicting landslide susceptibility and obtaining a more homogeneous classification map. Our findings acknowledge that in the mountainous regions suffering from data scarcity, it is possible to select key factors related to landslide occurrence based on the CF models in a GIS platform. Hence, the development of a scenario for future planning of risk mitigation is achieved in an efficient manner.
Highlights
The Osado Mountain that runs through the Osado region, is a part of Sado Island, Niigata Prefecture, and stretches approximately 20 km off the north-western coast of the Honshu Island in the Sea of Japan
The results presented here deals with two main topics: (i) a procedure to select the best landslide causative factors, and (ii) mapping landslide susceptibility in the Osado region based on the selected causative factors using statistical index and logistic regression
Landslide susceptibility mapping is essential to describe the propensity of a landslide in a susceptible area
Summary
The Osado Mountain that runs through the Osado region, is a part of Sado Island, Niigata Prefecture, and stretches approximately 20 km off the north-western coast of the Honshu Island in the Sea of Japan. Over a long period of time, the stormy waves of the Japan Sea have produced cliffs and bizarrely cut rocks all around the Osado coasts. The region is known for its history of gold and silver mining that started way back in the 8th century. Natural hazards such as earthquakes or volcanic eruptions are rare compared to other islands of Japan, landslides have been common in the Osado mountain due to rugged topography and high elevation up to 1172 m [1]. It is necessary to assess the areas susceptible to landslides in order to mitigate damages associated with them
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