Optimization of BP Neural Network Model for Rockburst Prediction under Multiple Influence Factors

Abstract

Rockbursts are serious threats to the safe production of mining, resulting in great casualties and property losses. The accurate prediction of rockburst is an important premise that influences the safety and health of miners. As a classical machine learning algorithm, the back propagation (BP) neural network has been widely used in rockburst prediction. However, there are few reports about the influence study of different training sample sizes, optimization algorithms and index dimensionless methods on the prediction accuracy of BP neural network models. Therefore, 100 groups of typical rockburst engineering samples were collected locally and abroad, and considering the relevance, scientificity and quantifiability of the prediction indexes, the ratio of the maximum tangential stress of surrounding rock to the rock uniaxial compressive strength (σθ/σc), the ratio of the rock uniaxial compressive strength to the rock uniaxial tensile strength (σc/σt) and the elastic energy index (Wet) were chosen as the prediction indexes. When the number of samples was 40, 70 and 100, sixty improved BP models were established based on the standard gradient descent algorithm and four optimization algorithms (momentum gradient descent algorithm, quasi-Newton algorithm, conjugate gradient algorithm, Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm) and four index dimensionless methods (unified extreme value processing method, differentiated extreme value processing method, data averaging processing method, normalized processing method). The prediction performances of each improved model were compared with those of standard BP models. The comparative study results indicate that the sample size, optimization algorithm and dimensionless method have different effects on the prediction accuracy of BP models, which are described as follows: (1) The prediction accuracy value A of the BP model increases with the addition of sample size. The average value Aave of twenty improved models under three kinds of sample sizes increases from Aave (40) = 69.7% to Aave (100) = 75.3%, with a maximal value Amax from Amax (40) = 85.0% to Amax (100) = 97.0%. (2) The value A and comprehensive accuracy value C of the BP model based on four optimization algorithms are generally higher than those of the standard BP model. (3) The improved BP model based on the unified extreme value processing method combined with the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm has the highest value Amax (100) = 97.0% and value C = 194, and the prediction results of five engineering cases are completely consistent with the actual situation at the site, so this is the best BP neural network model selected in this paper.