Optimization of a rainfall dependent model for the seasonal Aedes aegypti integrated control: A case of Lavras/Brazil

Abstract

According to the World Health Organization, more than 80% of the world’s population lives in areas at risk of vector-borne diseases transmission. The Aedes aegypti mosquito is through its bite the responsible vector for transmitting many diseases, such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya fever, with 50–100 million estimated cases of dengue fever yearly worldwide. The vector control is the recommended action to mitigate the transmission, but public health organizations face limitations on budget, mainly in emerging countries. In that sense, the efficiency in vector control with fewer costs becomes reasonably desirable. The present work aims to develop an optimization procedure on a new rainfall dependent nonlinear dynamic population model, which is adjusted by the data obtained from females captured in traps. Thus, we can find solutions that contribute to reduce the vector infestation and minimize both the social and economic costs involved. The problem is approached over two different strategies: simultaneous step size control (SSC) and simultaneous descending control (SDC). Control strategies may vary according to the type of control, the time, and the application period throughout the year. Numerical simulations consider the case for the city of Lavras, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, during the spring and summer. The Real-Biased Genetic Algorithm was used in a mono-objective optimization problem to find optimal intervention solutions. The findings indicate policy solutions with a low total cost and a high efficiency, reflecting the decline in vector populations according to the weather.