Optimization model of the hub airport schedule under uncertainty

Abstract

On the basis of a combination of fuzzy-multiple and theoretical probabilistic approaches, a model has been developed for optimizing the timetable for the movement of aircraft at an airport operating in the framework of the air transport system “hub & spoke”. The model can be integrated into mathematical and software environment designed to support decision-making at the stages of the formation and reconstruction of the hub & spoke system. The source of the initial data of the model is the databases of information production systems of airports and expert assessments. The purpose of optimizing the schedule is to reduce the lost profits of the hub-forming airline, arising from the failure of its services to those passengers who are potentially ready to be transported with a change in a hub, who consider the duration of the transfer to be unacceptable. Optimization consists in determining, on a given time interval, the points of time of arrival and departure minimizing lost profits due to the preservation of the potential transfer passenger traffic by ensuring a comfortable time of transfer. Restrictions on time and resource parameters of ground service processes are taken into account. The presence of fuzzy values in the composition of initial data is explained by the use of expert assessments and the difficult formalization of the subjective opinions of passengers with respect to the time spent in the hub. The stochastic nature of ground handling processes in a hub makes it necessary to use random variables in the model. The task with a fuzzy objective function and probabilistic constraints is reduced to the problem of mathematical programming. A description of the model example results is described. The possibility of a significant increase in income from transfer traffic is shown only by optimizing the schedule.