Optimization and Simulation of Mountain City Land Use Based on MOP-PLUS Model: A Case Study of Caijia Cluster, Chongqing

Abstract

Mountainous cities face various land use challenges, including complex topography, low land use efficiency, and the insufficient control of land use in small-scale areas at the urban fringe. Considering population changes, environmental conservation, and urban planning, this study first established three scenarios: economic priority (Econ. Prior.), ecological priority (Ecol. Prior.), and balanced development (BD), and then used the Multi-Objective Planning (MOP) model to calculate the optimal land use structure. Finally, it carried out land use spatial layout optimization based on the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model in 2035, Caijia Cluster, Chongqing, China. This approach, known as MOP-PLUS modeling, aimed to optimize land use. Meanwhile, the applicability of the PLUS model in simulating land use changes was discussed in small-scale mountainous areas. The results show the following: (1) The “quantity + space” approach in the MOP-PLUS model demonstrated the feasibility of the PLUS model in simulating land use change in small-scale mountainous areas. The overall accuracy (OA) of land use change simulation reached 81.60%, with a Kappa value of 0.73 and a Figure of Merit (FoM) coefficient of 0.263. (2) Land use optimization: Under the Econ. Prior. scenario, economic benefits peaked at 4.06 × 1010 CNY. Urban expansion was the largest, leading to increased patch fragmentation. The Ecol. Prior. scenario yielded the highest ecological benefits, reaching 7.46 × 107 CNY. The urban development pattern exhibited inward contraction, accompanied by urban retrogression. In the BD scenario, economic benefits totaled 3.89 × 1010 CNY, and ecological benefits amounted to 7.16 × 107 CNY. Construction land tended to concentrate spatially, leading to relatively optimal land use efficiency. Therefore, based on a comprehensive consideration of the regional land use constraint policies and spatial layout, we believe that a balance point for land use demands can be found in the BD scenario. It can ensure economic growth without compromising the ecological environment.