Abstract
Does optimism lead to success? Friends of optimism argue that positive beliefs about ourselves and our future contribute to our fitness and mental health, and are correlated with good functioning, productivity, resilience, and pro-social behaviour. Sceptics, instead, claim that when we are optimistic we fail to react constructively to negative feedback, and put ourselves at risk because we underestimate threats. Thus, it is controversial whether optimistic beliefs are conducive to success, intended as the fulfilment of our goals in a given domain. According to the traditional view, optimistic beliefs lead to success when they do not involve any distortion of reality, and according to the trade-off view, they lead to success when they involve a distortion of reality, but a small one. Based on the literature about positive illusions in the perception of romantic partners and in the assessment of future health prospects, I suggest that optimistic beliefs lead to goal attainment when they support agency by contributing to the sense that we are competent and efficacious agents and that our goals are both desirable and attainable.
Highlights
Does optimism lead to success? Friends of optimism argue that positive beliefs about ourselves and our future contribute to our fitness and mental health, and are correlated with good functioning, productivity, resilience, and pro-social behaviour
The link between optimism and success is widely endorsed in popular culture, it is controversial in the empirical literature, where we find both examples of optimistic beliefs leading to success (e.g., Fox 2013) and examples of optimistic beliefs leading to failure (e.g., Lavallo and Kahneman 2003; Lewine and Sommers 2016)
I challenge the two dominant views about the relationship between optimism and success: (1) optimistic beliefs lead to success when they involve no distortion of reality; (2) optimistic beliefs lead to success when they do involve a distortion of reality, but not a major one
Summary
Let me start with an example of optimistic beliefs linked to success where success is cashed out in terms of overall social adjustment. Let me turn to an example of optimistic beliefs that are not conducive to success, where success is measured by academic performance and engagement. I challenge the two dominant views about the relationship between optimism and success: (1) optimistic beliefs lead to success when they involve no distortion of reality; (2) optimistic beliefs lead to success when they do involve a distortion of reality, but not a major one. Independent of how realistic they are, the beliefs linked to success sustain our motivation to pursue our goals notwithstanding the inevitable setbacks and challenges we face
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