Optimal water resources operation for rivers-connected lake under uncertainty

Abstract

Due to the complex water system and diversified management requirements, the optimal water resources operation of the rivers-connected lake has always been a difficulty in current researches. Based on the discussion of characteristics of the rivers-connected lake, this paper quantified the forecasting uncertainty in the operation process, and set the quantified uncertainty as the objective function to establish the water resources optimal operation model of rivers-connected lake. The human factors were coupled to the optimal water resources operation in the model, in order to obtain the optimal plan of lake water resources operation with human adaptability. Hongze Lake was taken as an example for the analysis of water resources optimization operation plan of rivers-connected lake. Also, an integrated algorithm including the normal boundary crossing method, the primal–dual interior-point method, and the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II (NSGA-II) was proposed to solve the lake operation model. The results proved that the optimization calculation of multi-objective operation under the uncertainty conditions of Hongze Lake can be obtained by the proposed model and algorithm. Uncertainties related to forecasts of lake operation can be effectively reduced by the proposed model, which, thus, implied the obtained operation plan in this paper is more adaptive to changing environment than the existing other plans. The research results can provide technical methods for the lake water resources operation with plentiful and diverse objectives of China and other countries.