Optimal vaccine distribution in a spatiotemporal epidemic model with an application to rabies and raccoons

Abstract

We formulate an S–I–R (Susceptible, Infected, Immune) spatiotemporal epidemic model as a system of coupled parabolic partial differential equations with no-flux boundary conditions. Immunity is gained through vaccination with the vaccine distribution considered a control variable. The objective is to characterize an optimal control, a vaccine program which minimizes the number of infected individuals and the costs associated with vaccination over a finite space and time domain. We prove existence of solutions to the state system and existence of an optimal control, as well as derive corresponding sensitivity and adjoint equations. Techniques of optimal control theory are then employed to obtain the optimal control characterization in terms of state and adjoint functions. To illustrate solutions, parameter values are chosen to model the spread of rabies in raccoons. Optimal distributions of oral rabies vaccine baits for homogeneous and heterogeneous spatial domains are compared. Numerical results reveal that natural land features affecting raccoon movement and the relocation of raccoons by humans can considerably alter the design of a cost-effective vaccination regime. We show that the use of optimal control theory in mathematical models can yield immediate insight as to when, where, and what degree control measures should be implemented.