Abstract
A deterministic ordinary differential equation model for SARS-CoV-2 is developed and analysed, taking into account the role of exposed, mildly symptomatic, and severely symptomatic persons in the spread of the disease. It is shown that in the absence of infective immigrants, the model has a locally asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium whenever the basic reproduction number is below unity. In the absence of immigration of infective persons, the disease can be eradicated whenever ℛ0 < 1. Specifically, if the controls ui, i=1,2,3,4, are implemented to 100% efficiency, the disease dies away easily. It is shown that border closure (or at least screening) is indispensable in the fight against the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Simulation of optimal control of the model suggests that the most cost-effective strategy to combat SARS-CoV-2 is to reduce contact through use of nose masks and physical distancing.
Highlights
Starting in November 2019, from the city of Wuhan, China, a disease caused by a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has ravaged the entire world, causing the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare it as a pandemic of international concern
[5] developed a mathematical model to study the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID19, concluding that the use of face masks and adhering to social distancing are key in the fight against the disease. e model in [6, 7] proposed an optimal control problem that sought to advise what governments could do to curb COVID-19 spread
That person-to-person infection continues to be the main source of infections and, strategy 8 is recommended. at is, all efforts aimed at reducing/preventing person-to-person transmission should be adhered to strictly
Summary
Starting in November 2019, from the city of Wuhan, China, a disease caused by a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has ravaged the entire world, causing the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare it as a pandemic of international concern. [5] developed a mathematical model to study the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID19, concluding that the use of face masks and adhering to social distancing are key in the fight against the disease. Use of nose masks and/or face shields, social/physical distancing, and disinfection of surfaces are some nonpharmaceutical interventions that have been proposed to help curb COVID-19. With better strategies needed to curb the disease, an optimal control problem with four controls (namely, use of face masks and social distancing u1, avoidance of touching contact surfaces u2, prevention of surface contamination u3, and disinfection of environment u4) is proposed, and the cost-effectiveness of all sixteen possible combinations of these controls is computed
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