Optimal Stopping and Loading Rules Considering Multiple Attempts and Task Success Criteria

Abstract

Numerous engineering systems gradually deteriorate due to internal stress caused by the working load. The system deterioration process is directly related to the workload, providing opportunities for decision-makers to manage system deterioration by modifying the workload. As one of the most effective ways to control system malfunction risk, mission stopping has been extensively studied. Most existing research on mission stopping ignores the effect of working loads on the internal deterioration of safety-critical systems. The purpose of this work is to examine the optimal joint loading and stopping rules for systems subject to internal degradation under two types of mission success requirements (MSR). The problem is formulated using the recursive algorithm to minimize the expected cost over the mission. Mission reliability and system safety are assessed, and the optimal loading and stopping rules are investigated. The established models are illustrated by practical examples, and comprehensive policy comparison and parameter sensitivity analysis on the allowable mission time, mission duration and the number of mission tries are conducted. Our findings indicate that dynamic load level modification has a substantial effect on system deterioration and predicted long-term costs. For the purpose of decision-making, several managerial implications for the joint development of load adjustment and abort implementation are obtained.