Optimal Stock Portfolio Analysis using Mean-Value at Risk (Mean-VaR) under Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT)

Abstract

Investing in Sharia-compliant stocks is one of the rapidly growing investment options, making it a potential choice for investors' portfolios. Therefore, investors need to understand how to select an optimal composition of stocks in their portfolio. This research aims to calculate the expected return on Sharia-compliant stocks and determine the optimal portfolio. The data used in this study includes stocks within the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI) in the energy and mining sectors from November 1, 2022, to October 30, 2023. The analytical models employed are the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) and Mean-Value at Risk (Mean-VaR). Based on the research findings, seven stocks form the composition of the optimal stock portfolio. These stocks are AKRA, ANTM, PGAS, INCO, INDY, PTBA, and MDKA, with weights of 20.54%, 19.58%, 19.02%, 14.24%, 10.97%, 8.00%, and 7.66%, respectively. The expected return for the investor is 0.13% per day, with a corresponding risk of 0.23%.